ThisDay columnist, Dele Momodu, a prolific writer known for his analytic style has come out with yet another piece. Enjoy:
Fellow Nigerians, you must be wondering what this title is
all about. Please, calm down, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,
one of Nigeria’s iconic politicians, is not about to dump his
party, APC, for PDP, the party he fought hard with others to
sack from power just last year.
The reason for bringing PDP into this article which largely
concerns the Tinubu conundrum is very simple and straight-
forward. PDP has suffered calamities upon catastrophes
since General Muhammadu Buhari sacked President
Goodluck Jonathan from office. It is hard to imagine, or
believe, that a party that held Nigeria by the jugular for 16
solid years could attain meltdown so soon and almost
disappear into oblivion.
One would have expected PDP, despite its electoral
misfortune, to provide a formidable opposition to APC and
keep President Buhari on his toes but that has not been the
case. APC has wasted no time in sending PDP to an early
grave by throwing poisonous darts at it from every angle.
The war against corruption has been a most veritable
weapon with stupendous impact used by APC to scatter
most of the PDP apparatchik to the winds. The strategy
was to weaken them by showcasing the humongous
corruption that was perpetrated and perpetuated during their
reign. The PDP brand was thus obliterated in a jiffy. Many
of their bigwigs confessed to nefarious and horrendous
crimes of looting and brigandage. They coughed up or
vomited incredible sums of cash.
All entreaties and shouts of a vengeful witch-hunt against
President Buhari fell on deaf ears. The more they screamed
the more they were horse-whipped into submission and
made to weep bitterly.
As if that was not bad enough, PDP engaged itself in a war
of attrition and became a house divided against itself. It
was only a matter of time before it crumbled like the
proverbial cookie does. Today, PDP has become its own
worst enemy with the brickbats being thrown at one another
by members of what used to be touted as the biggest
political party in Africa. How are the mighty fallen!
The aim of my piece this week is to attempt what I did in
2014 when I wrote a permutative article titled ‘In Search of
Mathematicians’. That was how I predicted a win for Buhari
when many pundits still doubted such possibility. I intend to
do so again in this column by painting a picture of what to
expect in 2019. If you think that year is still far away, perish
the thought.
The battle for the next Nigerian Presidential election started
as soon as the last one was lost and won. The hurly-burly
of the elections had not yet settled down when the potential
gladiators picked up their gauntlets in readiness for the next
combat.
The ruling party APC has suffered its own casualties as a
result of its self-immolating wars of anticipation. What do I
mean? The new men of power are already thinking ahead
and wondering who may be too ambitious within their own
fold. Any of such recalcitrant and ambitious rebels must be
cut down to size, no matter his or her contribution to past
victory and glory. Without mincing words, the Senate
President, Bukola Saraki, is the first victim and he has
suffered massive collateral damage on account of
suspicion. APC itself has suffered almost fatally in the
process. The only thing holding it together for now is the
fact that it is the party in power and thus presumably has
limitless opportunities to distribute largesse to the army of
party operatives and their cronies.
By this time next year, as this government enters its third
year in power, reality would begin to set in and President
Buhari will begin to discover and see original animals in
human skin.
I foresee and predict a re-alignment of political forces from
2017. President Buhari will be encouraged and persuaded to
run a second term by those who are currently profiting from
his government. It is only normal and it is their legitimate
right. Nothing stops the President from seeking a re-
election within our Constitution. The only snag is that many
politicians are going to gang up against him because they
see him as an outsider in politics who has benefitted from
their massive support but in return has been messing things
up for them.
If the President remains stoically stubborn and refuses to
play ball with politicians, he would have to fight dirty to win
his ticket. It seems to me that he would have to do
everything to retain the loyalty of one man by all means,
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is almost impossible for any
candidate to become President of Nigeria without the
overwhelming support of the Yoruba and their current
generalissimo, Tinubu, in particular.
Tinubu derives his stranglehold on power from his iron grip
on Lagos. Lagos is a microcosm of Nigeria. Whoever
controls Lagos owns the commercial nerve-centre of
Nigeria, just like the California of America. Tinubu has been
very lucky in that his anointed candidates, Babatunde Raji
Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode, have been very cerebrally
successful. The current Governor of Lagos State, Mr
Akinwunmi Ambode, is already set, after just one year in
office, to surpass all expectations.
According to impeccable sources, Buhari may therefore be
forced to risk and pick Tinubu as his running-mate if push
comes to shove. Tinubu’s protégé, Professor Yemi
Osinbajo, is the current Vice President, who comes with
intimidating credentials but may not have enough political
muscle to deliver enough votes to the kitty. The dilemma
for Buhari is whether he should buck the trend set by his
predecessors, starting from Shehu Shagari, and jettison his
Vice President, especially when a cordial and mutually
respectful relationship exists between them. In addition,
Osinbajo has been doing exceedingly well and he is seen as
one of the few shining lights of this Administration.
There is also the fact that Prof Osinbajo is a highly
regarded and esteemed senior Christian figure and the
President has needed him to silence those detractors that
consider him an Islamic fundamentalist.
However, I believe that the controversy that could ensue
from a potentially volatile Muslim/Muslim ticket may have
been fixed substantially. Firstly, there is a precedent set by
Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola the acclaimed winner of
the 1993 elections who picked a fellow Muslim, Alhaji Baba
Gana Kingibe, as his running-mate and still won in Nigeria’s
freest and fairest election to date. Secondly, though Tinubu
is a devout Muslim, his beloved wife is a hard-core
Christian and a top-notch member of the same Redeemed
Christian Church of God as the Vice President. Thirdly, there
is the fact that Tinubu supported a Christian, Akinwunmi
Ambode, as his anointed candidate for Governor of Lagos
State, a deft move calculated to pacify those who may wish
to foment religious crisis and conflagration then and in the
future.
Tinubu is believed by many to have served Nigeria
meritoriously and selflessly by suppressing his own
personal ambition for that of others and it is believed that
the kingmaker deserves a chunky reward the next time
around if he so desires. He is acknowledged as being one
of the most knowledgeable leaders in Nigeria today and a
lot of people feel that his background in business and
politics could bail Nigeria out of the economic quagmire of
the moment. He is known to be a practical politician who
knows how to make the world better for most people.
If the hawks succeed in getting Buhari to snub Tinubu
because of his perceived threat to the President himself, the
APC may split like PDP did before the collapse of the
Jonathan Presidency.
One potential candidate is hovering in the wings and that is
the Turaki of Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who has
never hidden the fact that he wants the Presidency by all
means. My next permutation is that the former Vice
President and Tinubu who are two of the three most
powerful and influential politicians in APC today (the third is
Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki with his firm control of the
Senate) may combine forces to thwart a Buhari re-election
bid. They have been old allies since the time of Major
General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. If they join forces, it may
therefore spell doom for those seeking the re-election of
President Buhari.
After the seeming lull in the Buhari-Tinubu love, it seems
the recent appointments given to some of Tinubu’s acolytes
appear designed to assuage his feeling. But would this be
sufficient to bury the combustive ambition of a man who
believes he still has so much to give to his country?
The third option which also involves Tinubu in the mix is
one on which for a variety of reasons Buhari chooses not to
run again. Without doubt, there are several other forces
contending for power in case Buhari decides not to seek re-
election. In this category, Tinubu’s name still features
prominently. No one can deny the ability of Tinubu to
transform Nigeria the way he did in Lagos. It is presumed
that Buhari may generously want to pay Tinubu back for the
support he gave him. He may also want to leave a lasting
legacy and shed the toga of an ethnic jingoist by handing
over to a Southerner. If this happens, I foresee the visionary
Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, a core Buhari
loyalist, becoming Tinubu’s running-mate, notwithstanding
that this is another Muslim/Muslim ticket. Many APC
loyalists believe this combination may fly.
There is a fourth option and this is coming from the
direction of PDP. The theory here is that PDP can still
spring a surprise on Buhari and pay him back in his own
coin. The PDP apologists believe the North has lost more
under Buhari despite allocating many political appointments
to the region. They are of the opinion that former President
Jonathan did more for them and gave them access and
respect than their own man Buhari who they accuse of
being standoffish. This is the reason that many
Northerners, apart from his kinsmen in the South South,
have become the biggest promoter of PDP.
In case you think Jonathan is dead and buried politically,
perish the thought! He still holds the biggest ace in PDP. In
fact, many in PDP today see him as their best candidate in
2019 because some of his transformation agenda are
beginning to come to fruition. They are hoping and banking
on Buhari becoming so unpopular that Jonathan would be
sorely missed by Nigerians who would practically beg him
to come back.
The rising profile and the promotion of Jonathan in the
international community is part of that systematic way of
re-polishing, repackaging, redefining and preparing him for
a return to power. Every attempt to smear him with a tar
brush would be rebuffed by his die-hard loyalists who see
Buhari as someone trying to kill any future role for
Jonathan as Nigerian President. They are totally committed
to ensuring that Jonathan is well protected between now
and next year when serious politicking would have reached
a crescendo again. The hope is that as a former civilian
President, he can bounce back to power like President
Mathieu Kerekou did in Benin Republic, when he returned in
1996 after quitting in 1991.
Who knows tomorrow?
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